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The Race to Tallahassee

Mar 12

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Spurred on by an endorsement from President Trump, Byron Donalds has announced his candidacy to succeed Governor Ron DeSantis in 2026.


Courtesy of the Governor’s Mansion by State Library & Archives of Florida
Courtesy of the Governor’s Mansion by State Library & Archives of Florida

On the evening of February 20, 2025, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) to be Florida’s next governor. With it, he unofficially started the race to succeed incumbent Ron DeSantis.


The next Florida gubernatorial election will not take place until November 2026 - simultaneously with the midterm elections of Trump’s second tenure in office. But just as with national politics, state races are not immune from the “invisible primary.” Prospective candidates of both major parties often use the time between now and their campaign announcements to court donors, hire staff, and attract publicity. Those who undertake this preliminary stage most effectively can even occasionally dissuade potential challengers from throwing their hat in the ring, or “clear the field” in strategist parlance.


Rep. Donalds, however, has taken it a step further. Bolstered by President Trump’s backing, he wasted little time in officially declaring his candidacy for governor, doing so in an interview with Sean Hannity of FOX News. The endorsement and Donalds’ subsequent announcement have been viewed by pundits as an effort to preempt Gov. DeSantis’s wife, Casey DeSantis, from herself waging a campaign for the governorship.


In 2018, as now Gov. DeSantis was fighting an uphill Republican primary battle against Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam, Trump made a similar move in coming out for DeSantis, who had up until then been a close ally of Trump’s in Congress. The endorsement powered DeSantis to victory over Putnam and eventually propelled him to Tallahassee.


Conditions nearly two years out, however, will likely differ from those most pressing on Election Day in November 2026. Indeed, shortly after DeSantis was re-elected by a historic margin in 2022, polls indicated he had an advantage over Trump in their own impending primary duel. When the campaign season came into full swing, Trump bested the field easily.


Although increasingly seen as a solid Republican state, much will hinge on whom the Democratic Party chooses as their standard bearer. The field is viewed to be wide open, and no Democrat has won a contest for governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994.


Something that may complicate the equation would be a third-party challenger. Personal injury attorney John Morgan, notable for his past support of legalizing recreational marijuana in the state and despite being a consistent contributor to Democratic campaigns, has reportedly been considering the idea. While certainly he would start from a disadvantage, a Morgan campaign would likely be financially viable and throw the outcome of the race into greater doubt, depending on from whose supporters he draws most.


However the contest for who will next lead Florida plays out, it will offer insight into the future of a Republican Party that has increasingly come to call the Sunshine State home base.


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